Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.9  14.0  17.2  25.2  36.8  44.9  46.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  20.0  21.0  17.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.7  20.7  16.5  18.6  16.5  14.4  16.5   6.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  52.0  26.0  52.0  99.0  50.0  36.0  58.0  U  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  19.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP122026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.9  14.0  17.2  25.2  36.8  44.9  46.0  U  U  U  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  19.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%