Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260905 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 14.1 17.0 18.1 26.4 39.9 53.7 47.0 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 11.0 14.0 21.0 17.0 18.0 34.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.7 21.5 23.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 19.4 9.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 23.0 57.0 94.0 96.0 1.0 14.0 37.0 N U N F F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 53.0 46.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 23.0 28.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.70 EP122026 260905 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 14.1 17.0 18.1 26.4 39.9 53.7 47.0 U U N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 53.0 46.0 N N N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 23.0 28.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.2% 3.1%