Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260906 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 163.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.3 19.1 22.6 36.9 44.0 51.8 40.4 F F N N U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 18.0 35.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.6 33.6 29.4 31.5 29.4 31.5 21.6 16.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 45.0 68.0 109.0 60.0 31.0 22.0 71.0 N N N F N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 49.0 47.0 N N U U N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 17.0 36.0 21.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.68 EP122026 260906 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 163.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.3 19.1 22.6 36.9 44.0 51.8 40.4 U U N N F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 49.0 47.0 N N F F N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 17.0 36.0 21.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.2% 4.1%