Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260906 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 163.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 16.2 21.4 29.3 40.8 51.4 44.7 38.4 F F N N VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 12.0 16.0 19.0 19.0 20.0 28.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.6 33.6 29.4 29.4 31.5 25.5 19.8 18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 81.0 107.0 98.0 47.0 27.0 12.0 25.0 N N F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 53.0 48.0 42.0 N U U N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 12.0 21.0 32.0 10.0 N N N N U VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 EP122026 260906 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 163.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 16.2 21.4 29.3 40.8 51.4 44.7 38.4 N U N N VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 58.0 53.0 48.0 42.0 N F F N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 12.0 21.0 32.0 10.0 N N N N F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.4% 4.2%