Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260906 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 20.2 31.2 38.4 50.4 53.5 41.6 39.7 F N U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 17.0 21.0 21.0 17.0 37.0 9.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 34.4 36.5 34.4 34.4 34.4 24.8 21.2 19.4 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 73.0 79.0 59.0 49.0 -4.0 15.0 22.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 56.0 50.0 44.0 42.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 22.0 35.0 23.0 4.0 N N N U VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 EP122026 260906 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 20.2 31.2 38.4 50.4 53.5 41.6 39.7 N N N F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 56.0 50.0 44.0 42.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 22.0 35.0 23.0 4.0 N N N F VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.2% 4.6%