Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260906 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 30.7 41.0 46.7 54.5 46.3 38.9 42.6 N U VU VU VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 19.0 23.0 22.0 25.0 15.0 7.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 28.5 19.4 17.7 17.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 107.0 91.0 27.0 -9.0 -8.0 8.0 8.0 F F F U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 53.0 47.0 44.0 44.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 7.0 17.0 26.0 29.0 14.0 2.0 N N N U VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 EP122026 260906 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 30.7 41.0 46.7 54.5 46.3 38.9 42.6 N N VF VF VF VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 53.0 47.0 44.0 44.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 7.0 17.0 26.0 29.0 14.0 2.0 N N N F VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 15.9% 7.9%