Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260907 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 163.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 36.9 46.3 52.5 53.5 38.3 38.5 43.4 U U VU VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 22.0 21.0 19.0 30.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.4 39.4 39.4 41.5 29.8 24.4 21.0 22.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 96.0 54.0 4.0 23.0 -25.0 -11.0 -23.0 -22.0 F N U U VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 45.0 43.0 41.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 15.0 29.0 31.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 N N U VU VU U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 EP122026 260907 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 163.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 36.9 46.3 52.5 53.5 38.3 38.5 43.4 N F VF VF VF F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 45.0 43.0 41.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 15.0 29.0 31.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 N N F VF VF F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 23.4% 11.7%