Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    163.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  42.5  50.2  56.4  49.4  41.0  41.1  42.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  20.0  22.0  19.0   8.0   3.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.4  39.4  41.5  33.5  28.0  22.7  21.0  24.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  62.0  11.0  33.0 -51.0   6.0  -9.0 -33.0  N  N  U  N VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  12.0  26.0  29.0  33.0   8.0   1.0  -6.0  N  U VU VU VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.4%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 EP122026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    163.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.