Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  45.8  55.2  52.3  39.8  40.2  41.1  39.9  U VU VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  22.0  22.0  28.0  10.0   7.0   4.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  44.4  42.4  34.8  29.4  27.7  27.7  29.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  23.0  18.0   1.0 -28.0  -5.0 -10.0   5.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  41.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  23.0  28.0  35.0  15.0  10.0   4.0  -8.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 EP122026 260907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.