Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    162.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.6  52.6  50.1  43.6  35.8  40.3  41.4  43.8 VU VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  25.0  17.0  10.0   4.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  47.4  38.0  34.4  31.0  31.0  32.7  36.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  21.0  -4.0 -63.0  -8.0  -6.0 -25.0  25.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  24.0  34.0  30.0  11.0   7.0  -4.0  -4.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 EP122026 260907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    162.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.