Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260908 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 161.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.4 53.4 44.9 38.3 40.8 44.6 45.3 43.9 VU VU VU U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 23.0 15.0 10.0 6.0 1.0 8.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.5 38.0 34.4 31.0 29.3 29.3 36.2 38.0 U U VU VU VU VU U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 41.0 -41.0 -17.0 18.0 -31.0 7.0 -15.0 N N VU U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 43.0 44.0 42.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 45.0 37.0 20.0 11.0 5.0 -9.0 -1.0 VU VU VU VU U N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 EP122026 260908 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 161.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.