Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.0  48.1  36.3  40.0  40.7  42.8  40.5  45.8 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  14.0  11.0   9.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.0  32.7  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  34.4  39.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -27.0  -4.0 -12.0  -3.0 -16.0   2.0 108.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  43.0  44.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.0  35.0  17.0  11.0   6.0  -4.0 -10.0  -6.0 VU VU  U  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 EP122026 260908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.