Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    160.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  39.1  40.1  43.4  42.4  41.1  37.3  43.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.7  41.0  42.7  39.3  39.3  42.7  44.4  46.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -26.0  -4.0  -9.0  -1.0   9.0 -12.0  91.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  15.0  13.0  14.0   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP122026 260908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    160.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.