Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122026 260908 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 160.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 40.4 41.1 42.2 40.0 40.3 43.5 41.6 U U VU VU U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 56.0 54.3 56.0 52.7 56.0 59.4 64.8 61.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -9.0 0.0 1.0 -18.0 13.0 24.0 57.0 VU U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 12.0 16.0 5.0 -7.0 -8.0 -4.0 0.0 U U U N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.46 EP122026 260908 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 160.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.