Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  41.5  42.1  42.5  41.8  48.4  47.4  26.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  67.7  69.3  71.0  74.4  76.2  78.0  72.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -23.0 -19.0 -10.0  12.0  34.0  32.0  62.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   3.0   4.0  -5.0 -11.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.44

 EP122026 260909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    161.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.