Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    161.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  39.4  41.9  42.4  44.0  51.8  33.8  20.1 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.7  76.0  76.0  77.7  79.4  81.2  77.7  69.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -8.0 -15.0  14.0  25.0  41.0  30.0  -4.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0  10.0  15.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 EP122026 260909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    161.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.