Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  40.5  42.4  42.4  48.0  47.7  31.9  24.5  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.1  72.7  74.3  74.3  76.0  77.7  74.3  63.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -19.0  11.0   5.0  59.0  39.0   0.0   1.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  42.0  46.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  -5.0  -8.0 -12.0  -2.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.32

 EP122026 260909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.