Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    164.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  42.9  44.8  45.0  54.8  33.2  29.6  35.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  79.3  81.0  82.7  84.4  79.3  74.6  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   4.0  24.0   1.0  50.0  47.0 -13.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0 -11.0  -5.0  -1.0   8.0  26.0  20.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 EP122026 260910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    164.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.