Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.6  44.6  45.5  51.3  48.3  36.5  42.4  45.7 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  81.0  82.7  84.4  84.4  74.6  68.6  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  24.0 -13.0  46.0  31.0  13.0   4.0 -32.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  49.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0  20.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 EP122026 260910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.