Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    168.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  53.6  57.5  52.3  41.2  35.6  34.1  40.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  84.4  84.4  84.4  81.0  68.6  61.7  68.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  28.0  71.0  15.0  28.0 -27.0 -41.0 -20.0  U  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  50.0  53.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  11.0  30.0   4.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  U VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 EP122026 260910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    168.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.