Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    169.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.2  57.0  51.9  40.4  37.6  25.5  27.6  33.8 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  84.4  84.4  81.0  68.6  63.0  55.5  61.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  77.0  20.0  18.0  -8.0   5.0 -20.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  44.0  46.0  48.0  53.0  55.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  27.0  14.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 EP122026 260911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    169.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.