Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  16.5  18.6  17.4  13.8  17.5  20.1  15.3  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  36.0  37.0  36.0  29.0  25.0  24.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 115.1 112.9 102.4  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0  62.0  46.0  51.0  83.0  44.0  46.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  74.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        7.3%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.9%       45.9%       34.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       31.2%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       31.2%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       31.2%       19.0%
 45kt / 36h       23.5%       51.8%       37.7%
 55kt / 36h       13.3%       30.4%       21.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%       27.7%       23.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       22.7%       15.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%       24.4%       15.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 EP132026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  16.5  18.6  17.4  13.8  17.5  20.1  15.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  74.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0   1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%