Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  21.1  18.0  11.3  15.3  20.3  16.4  10.9  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  38.0  35.0  31.0  26.0  23.0  13.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 122.0 115.1 106.5  93.0  89.4  76.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  84.0  73.0  64.0  73.0  19.0  75.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        8.5%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       50.8%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       34.5%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       34.5%       22.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       34.5%       21.0%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%       56.4%       40.5%
 55kt / 36h       14.6%       35.0%       24.8%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       10.6%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.6%       22.0%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%       22.9%       14.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP132026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  21.1  18.0  11.3  15.3  20.3  16.4  10.9  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%