Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.0  14.0  13.4  17.2  26.0  16.3  10.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  25.0  20.0  12.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3 107.3 105.1  96.5  84.8  79.4  66.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  63.0  62.0  72.0  37.0  70.0  42.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -3.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       22.3%       19.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.5%       70.0%       59.7%
 30kt / 24h       31.2%       64.9%       48.0%
 35kt / 24h       25.5%       64.9%       45.2%
 40kt / 24h       14.1%       63.7%       38.9%
 45kt / 36h       31.0%       64.6%       47.8%
 55kt / 36h       19.3%       48.0%       33.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.1%       24.8%       21.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       21.1%       14.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       17.4%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP132026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.0  14.0  13.4  17.2  26.0  16.3  10.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -3.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%