Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260902 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 14.7 13.6 15.1 20.3 19.6 10.7 14.3 N F F F N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 36.0 32.0 27.0 27.0 18.0 11.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.3 107.0 102.3 100.1 89.4 78.0 69.3 57.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 65.0 67.0 63.0 39.0 37.0 57.0 92.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 80.0 76.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 31.1% 22.9% 27.0% 25kt / 24h 49.8% 64.4% 57.1% 30kt / 24h 39.1% 60.7% 49.9% 35kt / 24h 30.7% 60.7% 45.7% 40kt / 24h 28.8% 60.7% 44.8% 45kt / 36h 33.7% 53.0% 43.3% 55kt / 36h 22.5% 34.2% 28.4% 55kt / 48h 21.1% 17.7% 19.4% 70kt / 48h 9.1% 15.4% 12.2% 65kt / 72h 2.3% 12.4% 7.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.28 EP132026 260902 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 14.7 13.6 15.1 20.3 19.6 10.7 14.3 N U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 80.0 76.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%