Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  12.3  14.0  18.2  24.3  16.2   9.3  12.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  31.0  26.0  25.0  23.0  14.0   8.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.3 100.1  95.7  91.5  78.0  74.4  61.5  45.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  63.0  55.0  52.0  73.0  16.0  44.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       11.1%       11.1%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       38.6%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.0%       29.0%       22.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.5%       29.0%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       28.9%       17.2%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       23.2%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       10.3%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        6.4%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        4.4%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP132026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  12.3  14.0  18.2  24.3  16.2   9.3  12.8  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%