Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.8  14.3  18.2  18.9  14.6  12.0  13.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  27.0  26.0  27.0  20.0  12.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.1  95.1  86.5  84.4  73.0  64.3  52.2  40.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  50.0  25.0  58.0  37.0  33.0  44.0  35.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%       18.0%       16.2%
 25kt / 24h       28.9%       47.1%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.9%       42.5%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       42.5%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       39.2%       22.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       31.3%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       16.2%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        9.2%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        6.6%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP132026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.8  14.3  18.2  18.9  14.6  12.0  13.8  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%