Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.3  14.2  14.5  11.7  10.2  10.1  12.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  25.0  18.0  10.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.7  86.5  74.8  74.8  61.1  56.5  40.5  31.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  29.0  60.0  93.0  44.0  27.0  27.0  16.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.7%       13.4%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       35.7%       28.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.5%       29.1%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       29.1%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       26.0%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       26.5%       19.4%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%       13.4%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%        5.7%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP132026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.3  14.2  14.5  11.7  10.2  10.1  12.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%