Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  14.4  13.1  11.8  11.2  11.9   8.2  11.2  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  20.0  14.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  64.8  64.8  63.0  46.5  32.9  30.5  21.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  85.0 111.0  67.0  14.0  57.0  -4.0 -13.0  N  F  F  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.1%       20.4%       25.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       42.2%       38.4%
 30kt / 24h       27.1%       39.0%       33.0%
 35kt / 24h       24.7%       39.0%       31.8%
 40kt / 24h       15.6%       37.8%       26.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.3%       27.7%       23.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 EP132026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.