Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  13.3  12.3  10.7  10.5   8.4  10.6  11.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0  14.0  11.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.8  59.8  58.0  46.1  41.5  27.9  24.3  14.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  71.0  53.0  32.0   5.0  -2.0   8.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.3%       23.7%       32.0%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       41.5%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       29.5%       41.5%       35.5%
 35kt / 24h       29.5%       41.5%       35.5%
 40kt / 24h       15.0%       36.2%       25.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.2%       26.6%       21.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 EP132026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.