Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  11.3  10.2  12.7  12.2  12.0  13.7  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  15.0  13.0  10.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  53.0  49.4  36.5  32.2  20.5  11.7   7.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  46.0  27.0  12.0  22.0  -4.0 -17.0 -19.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.6%       13.7%       20.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       20.6%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       17.2%       18.0%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.2%       18.0%       17.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       14.7%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 EP132026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.