Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  11.6  12.1  12.2  10.9  12.7  14.5  15.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  12.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  49.4  44.3  36.5  28.0  19.3   9.7   7.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  35.0  -5.0  -7.0 -16.0 -16.0 -42.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.6%       10.1%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       14.8%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%       13.2%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       12.8%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        9.2%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP132026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.