Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260904 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 11.3 11.4 11.9 11.6 13.3 16.2 15.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.4 36.5 36.5 32.2 20.5 12.7 10.7 1.6 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 -5.0 4.0 -1.0 -1.0 5.0 -1.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 59.0 55.0 49.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.3% 4.9% 6.1% 25kt / 24h 3.5% 6.6% 5.1% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 5.8% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 5.0% 4.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 EP132026 260904 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.