Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  13.4  12.0  10.4  14.4  15.1  17.6  17.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.5  27.2  27.2  15.5  14.3   5.7  -2.6  -3.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -2.0  20.0 -14.0  -4.0 -17.0 -21.0 -32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        4.6%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.70

 EP132026 260904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.