Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.4  13.3  15.0  15.4  14.5  14.2  20.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.2  27.2  24.4  14.3   7.7   0.0  -2.6  -8.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  20.0  -7.0 -26.0  10.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  58.0  52.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        3.5%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.52

 EP132026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.