Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260905 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.1 16.0 12.7 12.8 14.5 17.6 15.8 27.5 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 12.7 10.7 10.7 2.4 -3.1 -3.1 -5.9 -7.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 1.0 -19.0 -22.0 5.0 -23.0 18.0 32.0 VU U U VU U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 55.0 51.0 51.0 44.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 12.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.82 EP132026 260905 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.