Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  12.1  13.2  15.6  16.5  22.1  18.5  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.7  10.7   5.0   2.4  -3.1  -3.1  -5.9  -9.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -23.0 -40.0 -27.0  -1.0   1.0  22.0  23.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   6.0  14.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.66

 EP132026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.