Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260906 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 14.5 16.4 15.3 19.7 16.1 21.8 37.1 F F F F N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 10.7 5.0 3.3 -1.6 -2.4 -5.9 -7.9 -9.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -30.0 -21.0 11.0 -43.0 11.0 -32.0 44.0 VU VU VU U VU U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 45.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 11.0 9.0 15.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.28 EP132026 260906 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.