Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.8  15.7  20.2  19.6  27.8  37.6  42.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.3   7.6   7.6   6.9   4.1   2.7   0.8  -1.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  16.0  -8.0 -29.0  11.0   0.0  73.0  23.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  42.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   9.0  16.0  42.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.56

 EP132026 260906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.