Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  24.2  18.8  19.6  31.7  38.7  41.5  44.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.6  21.9  21.9  19.1  17.1  14.0  11.7  11.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  14.0  23.0  22.0   1.0  54.0  11.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  40.0  37.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   6.0  12.0   8.0  30.0  16.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.16

 EP132026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.