Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260907 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 124.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 20.1 21.2 28.3 33.8 41.8 47.0 49.9 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 21.9 19.1 19.1 19.1 15.8 13.4 12.8 11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 19.0 23.0 -12.0 61.0 46.0 33.0 40.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 40.0 39.0 35.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 6.0 11.0 10.0 15.0 29.0 10.0 1.0 N N U U U VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.96 EP132026 260907 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 124.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.