Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260907 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 22.2 29.8 32.4 41.0 46.7 49.0 53.5 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.9 24.1 24.1 22.7 20.2 17.8 16.2 16.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 36.0 -8.0 -9.0 72.0 52.0 1.0 39.0 U N U U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 37.0 31.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 9.0 7.0 23.0 14.0 19.0 3.0 N U U N VU U VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.92 EP132026 260907 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.60 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.