Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260908 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 126.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 31.6 35.7 38.9 44.9 47.3 51.1 51.1 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 34.1 32.7 30.8 30.2 27.8 27.8 26.2 26.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 0.0 63.0 65.0 51.0 19.0 14.0 14.0 VU U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 35.0 37.0 37.0 38.0 32.0 28.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 5.0 6.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 6.0 6.0 U N N VU VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.54 EP132026 260908 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 126.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.