Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132026 260908 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 127.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.6 37.4 41.2 42.7 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.7 38.4 36.4 35.8 34.0 32.8 32.8 32.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 74.0 50.0 34.0 52.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 U N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 35.0 35.0 37.0 32.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 18.0 21.0 15.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N VU VU U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.58 EP132026 260908 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.50 127.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.