Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.5  17.3  19.3  14.2  13.4  12.2  11.1  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  20.0  20.0  24.0  16.0   8.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 118.6 114.4 110.5 106.6 104.8 103.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  29.0  34.0  29.0  49.0  10.0 -11.0 -34.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        4.8%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       23.6%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%       11.8%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       11.0%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        9.9%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       35.1%       19.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       18.4%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%        5.1%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%       12.8%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%       17.6%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP142026 260909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.5  17.3  19.3  14.2  13.4  12.2  11.1  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%