Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.5  15.6  13.9  13.9  13.8  13.0  18.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  23.0  17.0   9.0   6.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7 116.5 112.4 108.5 106.6 104.8 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  48.0  42.0  41.0   7.0  28.0 -22.0 -76.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       14.8%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        6.4%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       25.3%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%       11.6%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%        6.1%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        8.3%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       10.3%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP142026 260910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.5  15.6  13.9  13.9  13.8  13.0  18.7  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%