Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.9  18.8  16.4  15.3  13.7  12.3  18.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  27.0  18.0  12.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 111.5 107.4 105.5 103.5  99.8  89.3  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  36.0  42.0  33.0   8.0  -9.0 -37.0 -23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       12.2%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        5.3%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       18.4%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        7.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        3.8%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        4.9%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        5.5%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP142026 260910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.9  18.8  16.4  15.3  13.7  12.3  18.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%