Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142026 260910 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 118.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 18.2 17.4 17.3 18.5 12.9 18.6 19.2 N F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 17.0 12.0 8.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 107.4 105.5 103.5 101.6 89.3 89.3 78.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 28.0 39.0 0.0 6.0 -19.0 -11.0 28.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 64.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 9.4% 5.6% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 4.1% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 3.5% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 2.8% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 1.2% 14.5% 7.8% 55kt / 36h 1.0% 5.7% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 5.1% 1.6% 3.3% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 3.1% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 3.4% 1.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 EP142026 260910 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 118.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.