Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  18.6  19.6  18.6  17.9  11.2  20.2  16.1  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  12.0   8.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 100.5  98.5  98.5  94.8  84.3  82.7  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  19.0  17.0  31.0   3.0 -29.0 -24.0 -12.0  U  U  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       14.0%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        1.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.0%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 EP142026 260910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.