Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.1  19.5  19.8  13.7  19.4  17.8  19.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.5  86.6  84.8  84.8  74.3  72.7  63.6  62.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  32.0  38.0  11.0  27.0  14.0 -25.0  19.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        5.1%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       15.3%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        9.5%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        9.4%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        6.7%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       20.2%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%       10.2%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        2.0%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 EP142026 260911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.